“He who knows does not predict. He who predicts does not know.” Lao Tzu
Predictive modeling is to create or choose a model that will best predict the probability of a future outcome. Predictive modeling gives you the power to discover and quantify hidden relationships in your volumes of structured and unstructured data, and use those insights to confidently predict the outcome of future events and interactions. Predictive modeling tools and techniques enable decision-makers to develop a deeper understanding of their customers and solve even complex challenges faster.
At Precision Analytica, we strongly believe three key propositions in prediction.
- Point estimates are meaningless. You always will be wrong
- Prediction in aggregation will give you more accurate results
- Deeper insights can be generated by combining bottom up models with momentum based top down time series models
At each engagement, we work with our clients to build both top down time-series market level predictive models as well as bottom up individual customer journey type models from our Analytical Virtual Reality database. The top down model will answer the question of what will happen if current momentum continues? It will also create a future marketing environment for our Analytical Virtual Reality database. The bottom up model will create the core elements for the simulation engine to answer questions like, what you have to believe to hit the trend, or what will happen if we do x, y or z?