Precision Analytica projects 221 Democratic House seats, and finds the enacted maps raise the national lead needed for control

Los Angeles, 31 July 2026 — Democrats would win 221 of the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives if they carry the national two-party House vote by about 5½ percentage points, according to the first edition of Precision Analytica's 2026 House forecast, released today.

The published range is 220 to 223 Democratic seats. Three races are held open rather than forced into point estimates, because their primary or ballot conditions are unresolved: Florida's 25th District, Michigan's 7th District and Wisconsin's 3rd District.

The forecast's structural finding concerns the vote needed for control rather than the seat count. On the enacted maps, Democrats reach 218 seats once they lead the national vote by about 3½ points. On the previous district configuration, a nearly tied national vote could have been enough. Arizona's 6th District is the decisive 218th seat in the central model, and it was not redrawn.

"A strong Democratic year still restores most of the seats the new maps took away. What it does not restore is the cushion. Democrats can win this chamber, but they now have to win the country by a clearer margin first."

Arthur Palmer, Precision Analytica

Why the seat count and the threshold move differently

At the central scenario, the enacted maps cost Democrats about two seats against the previous configuration. The larger difference appears at the point where control first becomes possible.

The mechanism is compositional. The maps did not shift every competitive district by the same amount. They changed the order in which seats become available. Lower-cost Democratic opportunities were removed or made harder in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Texas, while California supplies replacement opportunities that arrive only after the national environment has moved further toward Democrats. By the time Democrats lead nationally by 5½ points, most of those replacements have arrived. Near an even national vote, they have not.

Arizona's 6th District shows the effect without any change to the district itself. Its modeled position is identical under both configurations. On the previous maps it would have been the 221st Democratic seat. On the enacted maps it is the 218th. The threshold moved even though the threshold district did not.

Figure 1

Selected seat rungs: the national vote at which additional districts change hands

How the model works

The Electoral Conversion Model starts from the change in the national two-party House vote since 2024 and gives each reviewed district its own share of that movement. Districts anchored by local partisanship or an established incumbent coalition move less than the country; more responsive districts move more.

It then separates an incumbent's personal strength from the underlying partisanship of the seat, since a previous congressional margin contains both. Where lines have been redrawn, the model rebuilds the baseline from presidential performance on the new boundaries rather than carrying an old margin into a different electorate, adding back the applicable share of a returning member's prior overperformance.

Ranking every reviewed district by the national vote it requires produces the seat ladder. The 218th rung is the threshold for control.

What to watch before the next edition

Arizona's 6th District remains the tipping seat. The three open races can move the 220-to-223 range without moving the structural threshold. The assumptions, benchmark definitions, scoring rules and district-level record will be frozen and archived before the general election.

Methodology and limitations

This is a conditional projection, not a probability forecast. It does not estimate the likelihood that the national vote finishes at any particular level, and the seat total moves with that input. The threshold result depends on the model's district transmission judgments; under the historical transmission benchmark the enacted-map requirement falls to roughly a 2.6-point Democratic lead, with the previous configuration close to even. Full method, sources, sensitivity tests and the district-level record are published with the research note.