Working Papers
Precision Analytica working papers develop formal, empirical, and conceptual arguments behind the site’s research program. Each entry below links to a standalone abstract page; full papers are available by request.
Theme
Strong visible performance can remain informative in the short run even as the hidden stock sustaining future performance erodes. The paper identifies a unique horizon at which current performance stops revealing future stock health and shows how technological change can move that crossing closer while institutions continue to apply inherited signals.
Working Paper
This paper argues that AI can separate visible performance from the slow human formation that institutions once bundled into work. It identifies where this separation is likely to hollow capability, judgment, responsibility, and apprenticeship.
Working Paper
This paper explains why more capable AI agents may not reduce enterprise incident rates. As model capability improves, organizations may expand delegated authority until governance capacity binds again.
Working Paper
This paper argues that AI may unsettle professional work through a meaning shock before an income shock. It examines how symbolic labor, junior career ladders, and professional recognition become vulnerable when first-pass output is automated.
Working Paper
This paper models why symbolic recognition can raise political welfare but later exhaust its mandate. Once meaning is repaired and material insecurity becomes binding, movements must convert recognition into reconstruction.
Working Paper
This paper frames Western liberal society as a dual engine of material production and moral repair. It explains why the tension between capitalism and progressive reform was historically productive but now risks overheating.
Working Paper
Theme
This paper develops a theory of middle hollowing in growth societies. It explains how formerly honorable life paths can lose material viability before institutions relicense new paths carrying public dignity.
Working Paper
This paper shows how visible moderation can erode even without rapid belief change. Engagement systems amplify high-conflict dimensions, rotating the public political axis away from the latent distribution of views.
Working Paper
This paper asks whether education changes the speed of partisan hardening or only baseline switching rates. Evidence from ANES panels supports a level effect rather than a slope effect.
Working Paper
Theme
Economic statistics can remain accurate according to their definitions while becoming incomplete guides to what happens next. This paper explains when familiar aggregates still contain enough information to describe economic dynamics, when additional state variables are needed, and when the economy must instead be represented through different coordinates. It develops a practical framework for detecting these failures and applies it to national accounting and financial regulation.
Working Paper · Available by email request
Theme
This paper argues that technology adoption can continue while the local capacity to reproduce the technology weakens. It introduces carrier reproduction as the missing layer between visible diffusion and durable capability.
Working Paper
This paper develops a structural diagnostic approach to adoption dynamics. It distinguishes whether slow diffusion reflects population composition, weak signaling, or delayed follower response.
Working Paper
This paper explains how smaller platforms can overtake larger rivals when they attract high-engagement producers. User composition can accelerate data accumulation, quality improvement, and eventual market tipping.
Working Paper
This paper develops a rational-expectations model of how different investor classes absorb flow-pressure shocks. It predicts the shape of correction paths, not only scalar demand elasticity.
Working Paper