For immediate release
/2026 U.S. House forecast
/2026 Series · Edition 2
/Fri 11 Sep 2026, 09:00 ET / 06:00 PT
Precision Analytica
Independent analytical research and forecasting · Los Angeles
Electoral Conversion Model · September update
Precision Analytica retains its 221-seat Democratic House forecast
The September update keeps Democrats at 221 seats [220–223] and Republicans at 214 under a D+5.5 national two-party House vote scenario. The modeled threshold for House control remains about D+3½ on the enacted maps.
Forecast stamp
House forecastDemocrats 221 [220–223] · Republicans 214
Forecast as of11 Sep 2026, 09:00 ET / 06:00 PT
Edition2 · September update
National scenarioD+5.5 two-party House vote
Control thresholdEnacted maps about D+3½
Decisive 218th seatAZ-06
Change from Edition 1Aggregate forecast unchanged
Next planned updateOctober 2026 · with additional general-election polling
Los Angeles, 11 September 2026 — Precision Analytica retains its July forecast of 221 Democratic seats and 214 Republican seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, with a published Democratic range of 220 to 223 seats under a D+5.5 national two-party House vote scenario.
Edition 2 incorporates completed primaries, confirmed general-election matchups and district polling released since the first edition. These updates do not materially change the chamber-level forecast.
The model continues to place the national two-party House vote required for control at approximately D+3½ on the enacted maps. Arizona's 6th District remains the decisive 218th seat in the central seat ladder.
Next update. Precision Analytica plans its next forecast update in October, when a broader body of post-primary general-election polling will be available.
Methodology note
The Electoral Conversion Model translates changes in the national two-party House vote into district-level outcomes using district-specific electoral baselines and transmission estimates. Full methodology, sources and sensitivity analysis are available in the accompanying research note.
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Source
Precision Analytica · Electoral Conversion Model · 2026 House Forecast Series, Edition 2
Research note: A Blue Tide on a Redrawn Map
Media contact
Precision Analytica, Los Angeles, California
research@precisionanalytica.com
About Precision Analytica
Precision Analytica is an independent analytical research firm based in Los Angeles. Its work covers forecasting, institutional analysis, and the translation of population-level change into market, political and organizational outcomes.
This is a conditional seat projection under the stated national-vote scenario, not a probability forecast. Earlier editions remain archived as part of the public forecast record.