Precision Analytica projects 224 Democratic House seats
The final pre-election edition projects Democrats at 224 seats [223–226] and Republicans at 211 under a D+7.4 national two-party House vote scenario.
| House forecastDemocrats 224 [223–226] · Republicans 211 | |
| Forecast as of17 Oct 2026, 16:46 ET / 13:46 PT | Versus current HouseDemocrats +10 seats (214 to 224) |
| National scenarioD+7.4 two-party House vote | Decisive 218th seatPennsylvania 8th District (PA-08) |
Los Angeles, 17 October 2026 — Relative to the currently seated House—214 Democrats, 218 Republicans, one independent and two vacancies—the projection adds ten Democratic seats and changes chamber control.
October generic-ballot averages are near D+8.5. The model adopts a more cautious D+7.4 election-vote scenario, allowing for midterm turnout uncertainty and diminishing gains in closely contested districts. The 223–226 seat range reflects alternative assumptions and unresolved close races.
Methodology
The Electoral Conversion Model translates national voting movement into district outcomes using incumbency, local voting history and current boundaries. Full method: A Blue Tide on a Redrawn Map.
Source and media contact
Precision Analytica · Los Angeles, California · research@precisionanalytica.com
Conditional seat projection, not a probability forecast. Current House membership: House Clerk, 15 October 2026. The working range is not a statistical confidence interval. Edition 1 and Edition 2 remain archived unchanged.